The regional status of Turkey until 2020, a future study

Publication Year: 1437 AH - 2016 AD Edition: 1 Number of pages: 366 pages Cover: Paper cover Publishing center: Center for Arabian Gulf Studies Through tracing the historical tendency of Turkish geostrategy, it becomes clear that Europe and the Arab countries constitute the most important point of attraction for Turkey, especially the eastern and southern fringes of Europe, Syria, and Iraq. In light of the lack of stability in Iraq, Turkey will continue to work on expanding its influence there alongside Iran and the United States, as Iraq is an important point for all these parties. Furthermore, the outbreak of the Syrian revolution and the potential collapse of the political regime there will make it a fragile area that Turkey seeks to extend its influence into. After discussing various scenarios for Turkey’s regional position, we favor the most likely scenario based on the indicators observed during this study. This scenario involves continuous progress in Turkey’s regional position and avoiding any military confrontation outside the framework of the United Nations and NATO, and continuing to deal with others on pragmatic rather than ideological bases. Additionally, adopting balanced policies that consider the contradictions among different international and regional powers. Major trends of all indicators point to Turkey representing a rising regional power strongly. By the year 2020, Turkey will have made significant strides toward becoming a central state. If Arab countries have to choose between Turkey, Iran, or Israel as the central state of the region, Turkey is the best option for many historical, cultural, and doctrinal reasons.